The International Monetary Fund raises global growth forecasts to 3.1% supported by investments in artificial intelligence.

IMF Projects Global Economic Growth of 3.1% in 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a global economic growth rate of 3.1% for 2026, a slight increase from its July estimate of 3%. This growth is supported by sustained strong investment in artificial intelligence, despite the impacts of rising energy prices and tensions in the Middle East.

Rising Risks to Economic Growth

In its “World Economic Outlook” report, the IMF warned of escalating risks that threaten growth. The report highlights increasing debt burdens and a growing number of economies with downgraded forecasts. The IMF noted that global economic growth in 2026 will remain below the 3.5% level recorded in 2025. It anticipates a growth acceleration to 3.4% in 2027, unchanged from its July estimates.

Artificial Intelligence Boosts Advanced Economies

The IMF attributes the modest improvement in forecasts to ongoing investment in artificial intelligence infrastructure. This investment has led to upward revisions for several advanced economies and countries linked to the supply chains of AI components and devices, including South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Thailand. Conversely, the IMF has lowered its projections for approximately 47% of economies compared to its April estimates, particularly for energy-importing countries outside the AI-related value chains.

U.S. Economic Growth Projections

The IMF expects the U.S. economy to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. This growth will be supported by strong consumer spending, tax cuts, and investments in artificial intelligence.

Oil Prices and Inflation Forecasts

The IMF predicts that the average oil price will reach $96 per barrel in 2026, before declining to $87 in 2027. It cautions that if conditions in the Middle East worsen and oil prices rise to $130 per barrel by the first quarter of 2027, global growth could decrease by 0.2 percentage points in 2026 and by 0.5 percentage points in 2027. In this scenario, the IMF also forecasts a rise in global inflation by an additional 1.1 percentage points in 2027, reaching 5.2%.

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