Oil is on track for a 12% weekly gain despite today’s decline.

Oil Prices Decline but Weekly Gains Remain Strong

Oil futures experienced a decline on Friday, yet they are still on track to achieve significant weekly gains of up to 12%. This surge in prices stems from concerns over potential disruptions in energy flows through the Red Sea, coupled with escalating tensions between the U.S.-Israeli alliance and Iran.

Recent Developments in Oil Prices

As of 07:47 GMT, Brent crude futures fell by $1.82, or 1.81%, settling at $98.87 per barrel. This drop follows a recent spike where prices exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since May. This increase occurred after Iranian-backed Houthi militants targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Despite this setback, Brent crude remains poised for a weekly gain of approximately 12%.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped by $1.60, or 1.74%, reaching $90.59 per barrel. WTI is also on track for a weekly increase of nearly 9.7%.

Regional Escalation Impacts Shipping Routes

John Evans, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates, noted that oil production centers and supply routes are currently threatened by ongoing conflicts. He emphasized that short-term forecasts appear optimistic. Concurrently, U.S. President Donald Trump has vowed to impose “significant military consequences” on Iran and the Houthis following the recent attacks in the Red Sea.

Iran has pressured the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the U.S. continues targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. This strait is the second most crucial energy passage after the Strait of Hormuz, which has seen a sharp decline in tanker traffic. Only one tanker crossed the strait on Thursday, marking the lowest level since May 7.

Maritime Competition and Global Implications

Shipping data revealed that two giant Chinese tankers carrying 4 million barrels of Saudi oil successfully navigated the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Thursday, circumventing the Houthi blockade. Other Saudi vessels faced attacks, while additional tankers slowed their progress or circled in the Gulf of Aden, awaiting improved security conditions.

On the international front, Russia announced airstrikes on three Ukrainian ports targeting energy infrastructure. Additionally, Kazakhstan temporarily reduced oil production following drone attacks that led to the closure of its main Black Sea export port.

Future Oil Price Predictions

Analysts at JPMorgan forecast that each additional month of supply disruptions could increase Brent crude prices by $7 to $8. Should these interruptions persist for three months, average prices could soar to $114 per barrel.

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