Ahead of Apple’s 2026 conference, KeyBanc’s predictions on the absence of the iPhone 18 and rising prices spark debate.

KeyBanc’s Controversial Predictions Ahead of Apple’s September 2026 Conference

A recent research note from KeyBanc has sparked debate as it outlines expectations ahead of Apple’s highly anticipated conference on September 9, 2026. The firm suggests that the absence of the basic iPhone 18 model this year, coupled with rising prices for new models, could exert pressure on Apple’s stock performance in the short term.

Major Changes in Launch Strategy

According to the report, Apple plans to implement significant changes in its product launch strategy:

• Introduction of the Foldable iPhone Ultra for the first time.
• Postponement of the basic iPhone 18 models until Spring 2027.

KeyBanc believes this decision may create a gap in the market, especially with the lack of a relatively low-cost option during the holiday season.

Production Forecasts and Stock Valuation

The firm anticipates that Apple will produce approximately 80 million iPhones during the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. This figure represents a decline of 11 million units compared to the previous year, attributed to the absence of the basic iPhone 18 model. Despite this forecast, KeyBanc maintains its price target for Apple stock at $250, while the stock currently trades at $329.97, suggesting that the market may be overvaluing the company.

Anticipated Price Increases

KeyBanc expects the following price increases for new models:

• iPhone 18 Pro: Starting at $1249 (+$150).
• iPhone 18 Pro Max: Starting at $1399 (+$200).
• iPhone Ultra: Starting at $2199.

The firm warns that these price hikes could provoke a negative reaction from investors, potentially exceeding the usual decline following new device launches.

Why KeyBanc’s Predictions May Be Inaccurate

The report overlooks several critical factors:

• Pro models account for over 80% of sales during the holiday season, which may mitigate the impact of the absence of the basic model.
• The launch of the iPhone 18 in Spring could restore market balance.
• A global shortage of RAM and SSD supplies makes focusing on Pro models more financially sensible.
• The potential launch of the iPhone 18e in Spring 2027 was not considered.

Conclusion

While KeyBanc anticipates pressure on Apple’s stock, the company’s history of underestimating Apple’s performance raises doubts about these concerns. Apple has consistently demonstrated its ability to exceed market expectations, suggesting that investors should remain cautious about these predictions.

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